2015 Housing, Stock and Oil Predictions

In our last video report, we took a look at how Wall Street experts and people on Main Street fared in 2014 when it came to predicting what was going to happen to the stock market, oil prices, and housing prices. In this report, let's see what the experts and a few people on the street think will happen to Long Island NY housing, oil and the stock market, in 2015…

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So what do you think the Long Island NY housing market will look like when we look back at 2015?
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Remember we not only keep our site here updated on a regular basis about Long Island NY housing, but we also post daily to Twitter and Facebook as well. We'd love to have you find and follow us there.
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2014 Housing Review: Who Was Smarter?

Last year, we got predictions from Wall Street experts and people on Main Street about what was going to happen to the stock market, oil prices, and housing prices.

So who was smarter, the experts, or people on the street. Let's see who was right…

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In our next video report, we'll take a look at what the experts and people on the street think housing, stocks and oil will look like next year when we look back at 2015.
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In the meantime, remember we not only update our site here on a regular basis, but we also post daily to Twitter and Facebook as well. We'd love to have you find and follow us there for more Long Island NY housing news.
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Long Island NY Real Estate News – January 2015

Long Island NY Real Estate News - January 2015

In our Long Island NY Real Estate News for January 2015:

Long Island NY Housing – What to Expect in 2015

As we turn the calendar to 2015, it seems only fitting that we explore Long Island NY housing and some of the things to watch for in the new year.

2015 Long Island NY housing forecast and what to expect in the new year.

Long Island NY Housing – Prices, Inventory and Sales

Let's start our look at Long Island NY housing with Prices, and what's expected to happen in 2015.

When all the figures are in, it appears Long Island NY housing prices – as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic) – will be up about 5% or so in 2014 (after increasing about 12% in 2013).

Some of the key factors in 2012 and 2013 were limited inventory, fewer foreclosures, investor buying in certain areas, and a change in psychology as buyers and sellers started believing house prices had bottomed.  In some areas, there appeared to be a bounce off the bottom – but that bounce appears to have ended in 2014.  The investor buying has slowed – as have distressed sales.

The consensus of housing analysts appears to be for price increases of around 3.5% to 4.0% in 2015.

Inventory – It appears housing inventory bottomed in early 2013. The question is, will inventory increase further in 2015, and, if so, by how much?

Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and usually inventory decreases from the seasonal high in mid-summer to the seasonal lows in December and January as sellers take their homes off the market for the holidays.

The Long Island NY housing market is slowly moving back to normal, and real estate is very local, as we all know. But our best guess at this point is, available inventory will increase further in 2015. If this holds true, it will keep home price increases from going to high too fast, which is never a good thing for the Long Island NY housing market.

Sales – CoreLogic released its 2015 Housing Outlook that shows home sales will increase by 9 percent. The most important economic trend is that employment growth for millennials began to improve in 2014, with the 25- to 29-year-old segment experiencing a 3 percent improvement in employment growth — one percentage point higher than the overall employment growth rate. That's important because this age group is the key first-time homebuyer segment.

When it comes to the Long Island NY housing market, 2015 may be the year first-time home buyers make a comeback. With rents rising faster than incomes, many Millennials are expected to start looking to buy homes of their own.

Here are two more Long Island NY housing market trends economists and other industry experts expect to see in the year ahead, in additon to the price expectations and inventory projects we just covered.

Looser Lending Standards – In early December, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac put new lending guidelines in place and started offering 3% down payment mortgages that will make it easier for more first-time buyers to qualify for a mortgage.
Add to that a strengthening job market, and prospects look much brighter for young home buyers.

First time home buyers are important to the overall Long Island NY housing market because a spike in the number of first time home buyers should spark a chain reaction by enabling existing homeowners to sell their homes and buy more expensive ones.

Mortgage Rates – If there's any single market trend that real estate industry pros have gotten consistently wrong lately, it's the direction of mortgage rates. But most do expect rates to rise at some point in 2015.

In December, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would not raise the Federal Funds rate until the summer of 2015 or perhaps even later.

With the mortgage rate guessing game continuing as we start the new year, many experts believe rates will peak in 2015 at 4.75% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, and even if they hit 5.00%, that's still a very favorable rate, historically.

An increase to 4.5% from the current 4% adds about $60 a month to mortgage payments on a loan with a principal balance of $200,000. Not enough to keep buyers away, when rental rates are increasing much faster, comparitively speaking.

As the economy improves and salaries rise, Millennials are expected to become a bigger force in the Long Island NY housing market in the new year. Households headed by Millennials are expected to see significant growth in 2015, particularly as the economy continues to make gains.

Millennials are expected to drive two-thirds of household formations over the next five years, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. The forecasted addition of 2.5 million jobs next year, as well as an increase in household formation, are the two factors that realtor.com® points to in driving more first time home buyers to the Long Island NY housing market.

As always, we'll continue to track all of these Long Island NY housing trends for you throughout the new year and keep you updated right here.

2015 Long Island NY Housing Outlook

2014 was an encouraging year for the Long Island NY housing sector. Housing nationwide found itself on a bit of a roller coaster.

2014 kicked off with the "Polar Vortex" blamed for slowing home sales in the early part of the year. As we close the door on 2014, the National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes fell short of 2013's total, while the latest monthly data on new homes show sales were up just 1.8% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, price gains for previously owned homes have slowed significantly. Still, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed, single-family homes has been high for six straight months.

Economists say the Long Island NY housing market is showing mixed signals because it's normalizing, leveling off after a much more rapid recovery last year that was simply unsustainable.

What does Long Island NY housing look like for 2015 compared to 2014?

What to Expect for Long Island NY Housing in 2015

Long Island NY home prices didn't increase as fast in 2014, and they are expected to stick to that trend into the new year. Easing housing inventory levels and the exit of investors from the market are helping to put the brakes on home-price escalation. This change represents a fundamental shift in the market: We seem to have moved out of the rapid recovery phase and into a new normal. Gone are the double-digit gains of 2013. The National Association of Realtors predicts an annual gain in home prices of 4 to 5 percent in 2015.

The home buying process should get a little less hectic in 2015, thanks to eased inventory and credit plus the exit of investors from the Long Island NY housing market. Since the recovery began in earnest in late 2012, buyers have really taken it on the chin, forced to contend with low inventory, tight credit, bidding wars and intense competition from investors and all-cash buyers.

Mortgage Rates Seen Rising in 2015

The Mortgage Bankers' Association predicts that rates will rise to 5% by the end of 2015; Freddie Mac's chief economist Frank Nofthaft expects a more cautious average of 4.5% in 2015. The MBA says there is plenty of reason to believe a short-term fund rate hike could come by mid-2015, pushing mortgage interest rates up with it. Still, last year economists predicted that mortgage interest rates would hit 5% by the end of 2014—and yet the average rate for a conventional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage stood at just 3.93% last week, compared to 4.42% one year earlier. For most of 2014 interest rates were flat or declined. A great reminder that economists can make their predictions, but we wouldn't recommend anyone bet the farm on their forecasts.

Rents likely will continue to keep rising in the new year, and many housing analysts predict that an increase in rental costs in 2015 will outpace annual home-price gains. The rental market will likely remain a “landlord’s market” in 2015, with vacancy rates expected to stay below 5 percent in the new year.

Long Island NY Housing Likely to See More Sellers

More people are expected to try to sell their homes in 2015 (and Realtor.com predicts that existing, or previously owned, home sales will grow 8% in 2015). The entry of these previously owned homes onto the Long Island NY housing market could suppress the demand for more expensive newly constructed homes. Many Millennials forming their own households will need to save for a down payment before buying, so they'll rent instead of buying new homes. The vacancy rate for single-family homes is still near its recession high, which is likely to further depress construction of new single-family homes. So builders will continue to meet the demand for apartments–and multifamily housing could have another strong year, and builders are expected to shift to building less expensive homes.

Foreclosure filings have been on the decline this year and are expected to continue their descent well into 2015. The only uptick has been in foreclosure auctions, which are up 5 percent in November compared to one year earlier. Foreclosures will likely fall to pre-crisis levels in 2015.

The Long Island NY housing market is expected to be driven more by underlying economic fundamentals–job growth, incomes, household formation–than by macro-economic factors such as national price crashes. Mortgage interest rates and price recovery have driven the Long Island NY housing market for a long time. Now we're seeing that those factors aren't nearly as important as local economics.

Stay tuned as we wait to see how many of the 2015 Long Island NY housing market predictions actually come true, and how many of them we'll be looking at this time next year and saying, "Don't believe everything you hear from economic forecasters."

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Long Island NY Household Costs Down For Owners

The burden of Long Island NY household costs fell for the third consecutive year, according to the U.S. Census’ 2013 American Community Survey. Nationwide last year, 39.6 million households spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing, which is a decrease from 40.9 million in 2012 and down from the peak of 42.7 million in 2010.

Long Island NY household costs are mostly dropping among home owners, while they continue to strain renters

Long Island NY household costs are mostly dropping among home owners, while they continue to strain renters, according to a recent analysis by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies of the data. In 2013, 26 percent of home owners were considered burdened by household expenses (i.e.: spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing), compared to half of all renters at 49 percent.

Why Long Island NY Household Costs Are Escalating For Renters

The number of renter households is on the rise, which partially explains why Long Island NY household costs for renters are escalating. But renters are also plagued by rising rents that are not matching incomes. Median renter costs were up about 5 percent in 2013 compared to 2001, even though median incomes were nearly 11 percent lower, according to the report.

This has led to more renters being severely burdened by Long Island NY household costs in 2013, paying more than 50 percent of their incomes toward housing costs. 11.2 million renters were in this category.

The number of home owners burdened with higher Long Island NY household costs is dropping. After surging during the housing bubble, inflation-adjusted owner costs have dropped about 2.5 percent below their 2001 level. Owner burdens are also down due to a significant reduction in the overall number of home owners in 2013 than 2012. This decline in the number of home owners for the third straight year suggests that many burdened owners dropped out of ownership, moving into the costly rental market.

Get more timely information about Long Island NY household costs and news affecting those costs in our section on Long Island NY Real Estate News to the right under Long Island NY Real Estate Categories.

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